I just don't get it

I like Jack Wilson. A lot actually, probably more than a lot of people. I'm willing to believe his 2005 season was more affected by that appendectomy that mostly everyone else I talk to. I love watching him play the field and I'm almost positive that no one in baseball works harder than he does.

That being said, I'm completely convinced that the people running the Pittsburgh Pirates have either lost their mind or are the most fiscally irresponsible people in the entire world. Jack had a great year in 2004 and was thusly rewarded with a 2 year deal worth about $8 million to cover two of his three remaining arbitration years. He had an awful 2005 in which he might have been the worst hitting regular position player in the National League not named Cristian Guzman, which was at least partly due to his appendix problems, but the Pirates still had him under contract for this year and next year before they had to worry about him getting away. Instead of using 2006 to evaluate how he bounced back, how he carries his new weight, and who the real Jack Wilson is, today they chose to ink him to a 3 year, $20 million extension covering 2007-2009. I don't have the numbers on hand, but I can't imagine anyone in the history of baseball has nearly had their contract doubled in such a manner after a .257/.299/.363 season. This is kind of like the Jason Kendall contract, only Wilson was in no danger of leaving any time soon and no one is completely sure which Jack Wilson is the real Jack Wilson (though everyone kind of has an idea given the fact that he's 28 and four of his five major league seasons have more or less looked the same).

I seriously feel sick to my stomach. I no longer have any hope that things can change as long as Littlefield is allowed to run the team. In fact, the longer he hangs around the more and more his tenure looks like Cam Bonifay's, minus the good scouting. As Yogi Berra once said, "This is like deja vu all over again."

Astacio

Mark Lancaster, the Reds beat writer for the Cincy Frontier, posted on his blog this afternoon that the Reds have dropped out of the running for Pedro Astacio. According to him, Wayne Krivsky (the Reds' new GM) said that some unidentified other team (Krivsky didn't know who) other team had entered bidding for Astacio and drove the asking price way above what he was willing to pay. The only way this could have more of Dave Littlefield's handwriting on it would be if Littlefield publicly acknowledged he entered the bidding for Astacio (which, of course, he can't do because he's still busy pretending Wells might be back this year).

Thanks to the ever generous Red Hot Mama for the tip.

The rotation, sans Kip

Let me start off by saying that I really don't care what Dave Littlefield says, until I see Kip Wells on the mound I refuse to believe he's going to pitch before April. This is a serious clot that apparently has formed from the motion of pitching, meaning thateven if treating it with blood thinners makes it go away, pitching will make it come back. That being said, our rotation has suddenly taken a scary turn when you really look at things, not to mention the fact that two spots will now be open. So let's look at the options

In no matter what
Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm
Comment: Holy crap, those three look terrifying together as the top three in the rotation and the only people with set jobs. Kip was bad last year, but without him our rotation is suddenly anchored by three lefties aged 24, almost 23, and 23 respectively on Opening Day (Duke turns 23 on April 19th, Maholm 24 in June, and Ollie 25 in August) with a total of 38 Major League wins. Add in the fact that Duke can't possibly match his numbers from down the stretch last year, Perez is an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a question mark, and Maholm could probably use a full season at AAA (he's made a total of 12 career starts above AA) and this is a top three with a high ceiling, but without a guy like Wells as an anchor, they also leave a ton of questions.

In the running despite their lack of ability
Ryan Vogelsong, Victor Santos
Comment: I like Vogelsong more than most Pirate fans, but I don't think I'd trust him to start again. He finally seemed to find a groove out of the pen last year and I think he's better off staying there. Still, he's one of the players that have had a very positive reaction to Colborn and Tracy (my dad saw him on TV talking about how he was chalking up last year as a "lost year" and there were times when he'd go two weeks without being asked by the team to touch a baseball, to say he's bitter is an understatement) and he wouldn't be the worst option to fill a spot in the rotation for a couple months. Santos' numbers in Milwaukee last year were worse than RV's, but he did make 24 starts. None of his career numbers are that impressive, but if we don't use him, we lose him (he's the Rule V guy) and I'm guessing Littlefield will want him somewhere now that the pitching depth is drying up faster than... I can't even think of an analogy here.

In the running but shouldn't be due to lack of experience
Sean Burnett
Comment: I like Sean Burnett a lot. I saw him pitch in person a couple times in 2004 after his callup and he really impressed me. The fact remains that he has not pitched in a game of any kind since late August 2004 and it is a huge task to ask a guy with a total of 13 Major League starts to take over a year off, then hop right back into the rotation. I'd feel much better with him starting the season out in Indy no matter how impressive his spring is, though that seems unlikely now that Wells is hurt, especially since Burnett has shown no lingering effects from that injury thus far this spring.

The X-factor
Ian Snell
Comment: I don't really know how Snell will fit in to this mix. He was electric at times in AAA last year and was fantastic in his start against the Rocket in September, but doesn't really have a third pitch and all indications from within the organization are that they don't like the guy. If he can buckle down and develop even a decent changeup this spring, he should be an automatic for the rotation.

Starts with "B", ends with "UST", and has nothing to do with Anna Benson
Brian Bullington, John Van Benschoten
Comment: Ideally, this Kip injury wouldn't be a problem because these two guys would be ready to hop right into the rotation give their ages (JVB is almost 26 now, Bullington will be 26 in September, both are at least a year older than our entire top 3 save for Bullington's mere 319 day advantage over Perez). Instead, Bullington likely won't pitch in games until sometime around mid-summer after his surgery for a torn labrum last year and it will take a miracle for him to be ready for a September call-up, especially given Van Benschoten's time table to return from a similar injury. Van Benschoten is still feeling shoulder stiffness from his surgery for his partially torn labrum and isn't expected to throw until sometime later this week at the earliest. He'll likely start out at AAA and hope the shoulder gets better. Even if it does, he hasn't really put up good numbers at any level since 2003 in AA, and even those were merely average. With all the time he's had off, it would be a stretch to expect him to be ready to contribute to the Pirates in 2006.

The Aftermath
There are two other options, sign Pedro Astacio (who is a giant risk at his age, especially given that last year was the only year since 2002 he's thrown over 100 innings) or trade someone (we all know DL has been chomping at the bit to deal Craiggers) for pitching. I don't know what the market is at the moment, but I don't imagine CWills would bring us that much. Besides that, we're left with a talented but inexperienced top three and four other guys who probably shouldn't be starting games in the big leagues left to fill the last two spots. It's possible Snell comes around, learns a changeup, and fills one slot while Vogelsong or Santos does a decent job holding the last spot until Burnett is ready sometime in May, but I don't know if I'd count on it.

Inferno?

The Scene: The Pirates pitchers return from Cincinnatti sometime April 9th. They go into the bullpen at PNC Park for the first time of 2006. They then notice a new sign hanging over the bullpen door. The first thing that jumps out at them is the faces of some of their former comrades, Kris Benson, Bobby Bradley, John Van Benschoten, and Kip Wells loom especially large while Oliver Perez and Sean Burnett notice their own faces in the corners. They wonder if the ghostly shadow faces are those of Dave Williams and Scott Saurbeck Then they notice the text, written in bold, red, block letters.

Through me the way into the suffering city,
Through me the way to the eternal pain,
Through me the way that runs among the lost.
Justice urged on my high artificer;
My maker was divine authority,
The highest wisdom, and the primal love.
Before me nothing but eternal things were made,
And I endure eternally.
Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

More on Kip

According to this article on MLB.com, it's the axillary artery in Kip's pitching arm that has the clot. Being curious, I pulled the following Gray's anatomy image (the medical book, not the TV show, there was actually a girl in a lecture of mine that didn't know there was a difference) from Wikipedia.
(Click the image to enlarge)

The axillary artery is that big thick red line going down the middle of the arm and turning into the brachial artery right around the biceps. I'm not a doctor but I do watch a lot of Scrubs and House and it occurs to me that if that artery is 100% blocked like Littlefield said it was in the AP report there can't be much blood getting to the rest of Kip's arm and he's is probably going to be having surgery.

Anyways, the MLB.com article says that this clot isn't related to the elbow problems and numbness in his fingers that Kip had in 2004 (which I had forgotten until pointed out by Vaughn in the comments below) but given the nature of this injury and the awful manner in which Kip pitched last year, I find that claim to be pretty dubious. By dubious I mean I'm pretty sure it's a flat out lie so that the team can cover it's own ass. Again, I'm no medical expert, but a clot like this has to form over quite a long period of time. If it was the cause of his 2004 problems (and it HAD to be, it's too giant of a coincidence that unexplained arm numbness isn't related to a clot like this), than it probably could've been addressed in a much less dramatic manner that offseason. It's also not a stretch to think it may have affected his performance last year. We can now thank Dave Littlefield for the impressive seminar on "How to watch your impressive pitching depth disappear in 6 months or less" that we've been privy too since the end of last season.

Oh Kip

Yesterday afternoon I drove up to Clarion to visit some friends from back home (explaining the absence of posts yesterday). Anyways, I woke up this morning (I use morning loosely, think 11:30 AM) in pain on a couch (is there any way to wake up on a couch other than in pain?) hobbled into my friends room, and sat down at the computer to browse for any interesting Pirates news I may have missed (which is what I do every morning anyways). What I saw was this, that Kip Wells was having some arm fatigue and was going to get his arm checked out by a clot specialist. I found that a bit worrisome, espcially after reading this:

Pirates general manager Dave Littlefield did not divulge any specifics of Wells' status, referring to it solely and repeatedly as arm fatigue, and he did not say if any procedure was performed upon Wells' visit to St. Louis.

Anytime Dave Littlefield says something like that, it's not good. Anyways, we went to get some Eat n' Park breakfast, then I got in the car to come back to Pittsburgh. By the time I made it back to my room, like 4:30ish, I had completely forgotten about Kip Wells. That didn't last long, as I sat down at my desk, opened up ESPN.com, and immediately saw this. Not only does Kip have a clot, but it sounds like a bad one.

General manager Dave Littlefield described the clot as a "100 percent blockage" of an artery under the clavicle, the primary vessel that carries blood from the chest to the arms.

Not quite "arm fatigue" anymore, is it, Dave? My roommate, who's a pharmacy major in the process of taking anatomy, read that and said "If that's true, I can't imagine how he could move his arm at all."

WOW. I still don't quite know how to process all this. My first thought is, of course, that I hope Kip's OK. They caught it early, which is good news, but this is still very serious. Two people immediately came to mind after hearing about blood clots in a pitcher's arm like that, JR Richard and David Cone. I'm sure most of you know their stories. Richard was diagnosed with a blood clot in his pitching arm, but was told he was OK to keep pitching. Shortly afterwards he suffered a career ending (and nearly fatal) stroke. David Cone had an aneurysm in his pitching shoulder, got the surgery in May, and was back pitching in September. I would guess that this being a contract year for Kip where he's finally in a situation with a manager and pitching coach that he gets along with, his first inclination is to try and keep pitching. If this thing is as serious as it sounds though, he's got to get the surgery. And if he's having surgery, we won't see Kip Wells until August at the earliest.

Anyways, besides the serious health ramifications this has for Kip (which are the primary concerns above all else), I really hate to see this happen for a number of reasons. First off, I always had the impression that Kip did not get along well with Williams or McClendon and his level of frustration with those two was affecting his pitching. He seemed to have a very positive reaction to the embryonic stages of Jim Colborn's career as the Pirates pitching coach. I was holding out hope that one place to find a lot of improvement in the '06 Pirates was for Kip Wells to return to his 2003 form, and early reports from camp seemed to indicate he was on his way back. Now all of a sudden we're staring at a rotation in which the bottom 40% will likely be made up of Victor Santos and Ryan Vogelsong (I don't care how good Burnett looks, he's missed way too much time to jump right back into a major league rotation, I'm guessing he'll start the year in AAA and I can't say I would disagree with that). Maybe neither one will be as bad as Kip Wells was last year (it would be hard to be that awful), but neither one can be as good as he could potentially be. I've always liked Kip and I was willing to give him one more shot to start over this year, but now it looks like he might not get it anyways.

Why Jim Tracy and his staff may make a difference

Jim Tracy hasn't managed a game in black and gold yet, but I'll admit that I've been hard on him to this point. My review of his performance at Piratefest was less than glowing and lots of the stuff that comes out of his mouth terrifies me. I don't buy the crap about "Tracyball" and how it will help us win games. Still, the more I think about it, the more I think he might have a different type of effect on the team.

The problem that I think exists with the current perception of Tracy, both by myself and by his other critics, is the expectation of a baseball manager to be a football coach. When we watched the Steelers pull off that shocking win over the Colts 5 weeks ago, there were a number of things that even a casual fan could point to that Cowher, LeBeau, and Whisenhunt had done differently than in the mid-November shellacking the Colts gave us, things that had an immediate effect on the outcome of a game. The difference a baseball manager makes is more behind the scenes. You hear a lot of people say that a good manager may only win you 5-10 extra games throughout the season and that's probably true if you're only considering in-game moves. Then again, Ozzie Guillen was probably the worst manager in the American League last year if you only considered in-game moves. The things a manager does behind the scenes are things that go unnoticed, because they're the things that fans and writers expect to see happen.

Under Lloyd McClendon, the Pirates were a terrible fundamental baseball team. You would get the impression watching them that no one had ever gone over situations with them, and when a stupid mistake was made the atitude was that the player should've known better. Maybe that's true, but when the mistake is made again it means that someone didn't address the problem. When Ryan Doumit repeatedly runs the bases like a 12 year old, it means that no one's helping him. When Daryle Ward never, ever knows what to do with the ball when it's hit sharply to him with runners on first and third, it means that no one's gone out of their way to teach him. When you end up with two runners on third base and both of them get tagged out (and it happens twice in a season) it means no one has ever gone over what to do in that situation. Sure, they're major league baseball players, they've played baseball all their lives, and they really do know what to do. They also aren't perfect. The job of the coaches is to help make sure they are, for the third base coach to call to Doumit, "Two outs, Ryan" when he's on second, because even though 99 times out of a hundred he knows that, there's one time something else will be on his mind and he'll forget. If you run enough infield drills in the spring, Jose Castillo will never forget to cover second base when Jack Wilson snares a flare and looks to catch a runner napping. These aren't huge things, they're just things that need to be done.

So why do I think Tracy and his staff will be different? By Monday after the pitchers and catchers had reported I'd heard about changes he'd made with a handful of pitchers, something you never heard about Spin Williams doing. I'm sure they were nothing major, just tweaking the bad habits guys get into while while throwing in the offseason without a pitching coach. Reading Jim Sullivan's reports on OnlyBucs he talks about how Colbourn will never have four guys throw at once because he can't watch four. I can only assume that a statement like that means that the previous regime had no problem letting four guys throw at once. A day later Sullivan mentions that watching Tracy do more than simply observe things other than batting practice is quite a departure from the previous regime. My uncle had told me earlier this week that he had heard Dejan said something similar on the radio, that the level of instruction going on at Spring Training was something he'd never previously seen. A friend of the same uncle that went down to Spring Training this past week relayed back that under McClendon, everyone would work on a drill until the horn was blown, at which point they moved on. Under Tracy everyone works on a drill until they get it right, then the horn is blown. He said that McClendon would be no where to be found and you would barely know he was even at camp, where as everyone knows where Tracy is at all times.

It might seem reasonable that the players would be bugged by that, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Dejan's article yesterday and in general the entire team's positive response thus far in the Spring indicate otherwise, as far as I can tell. I'm not arguing that Tracy is a great or even a good manager or that his coaches are great or good, it would just seem that the more I'm hearing, the more I think that previous regime was really that bad. Imagine the difference between the Pirates of this year and last year if they do the little things right. I don't mean the things everyone talks about like hitting and running or bunting the runner over, I mean always knowing what to do with the ball when it's hit to them, running the bases right, catching those tweener pop-ups, things you'd expect a major league team to be able to do, but things that get messed up if they aren't worked on. It may not seem like a lot, but think about all the times last year you kicked the wall or threw the remote when the Pirates seemed incapable of playing fundamental baseball you'd expect from a Little League team. If Tracy and his staff really are teaching, it might be a worry of the past.

Contracts for the young'ns

Apparently Zach Duke will not follow in the footsteps of Oliver Perez and Jason Bay from last spring and will avoid bitching about the one year, $335,000 deal the Pirates have offered him. He might not sign it, but he seems to understand the process and won't complain about it. The bottom line is, Oliver Perez is a perfect illustration as to why Littlefield (and other GMs) don't go above those low offers for the 1 to 3 guys.

Also, Paul Maholm is looking better after a strained hammy, but John VB isn't throwing yet as a result of his shoulder "stiffness." It's good to hear Maholm's injury wasn't serious, but I think Van Benschoten's problem is worse than people think, or then the Pirates are letting on.

UPDATE (10:14 PM)- I misread Dejan's article, JVB is throwing and participating in long toss but there's no timetable for him to return to pitching. My mistake on that one, sorry guys.

Quick update

Just a quick update here, school's keeping me really busy lately and I haven't been able to post as much as I'd like given that camp in Bradenton is open, but things should be better within the next week or so. For now, I'd recommend checking out OnlyBucs for Wilbur Miller's piece about the owners and revenue sharing and for Jim Sullivan's excellent Spring Training reports (if you haven't already, I know Charlie and Rowdy have already pointed out both on their blogs).

Anyways, I have some alternate thoughts (alternate from what I usually say about him) on Tracy that I'm going to try and post by tomorrow (keeping with the attempt to stay positive for once).

Defense and roster spots

Today brings us a new Stats Geek column on a different day (from his usual Tuesday) and for some reason this week, the Geek's column is filed under "lifestyle" and it says "Brian O'Neill" bigger than it says "Stats Geek."Besides his identity crises today, he brings us another solid column, this one focusing on the Buccos' defense. The main focus lies on our shortstop, Mr. Wilson, and his propensity for the double play (which is actually almost historic at this point in his career). I'd highly recommend checking out the whole thing, if you haven't already.

Anyways, the thing that most caught my eye today was the piece about the last spot on the 25-man roster, which Dejan believes will come down to Yury DeCaster and Jose Hernandez. Normally I'd be of the opinion that DeCaster should probably spend a little more time in the minors, but the more I think about it, the less I agree with that line of thought. Here's why:

• Last year Hernandez put up an OPS of .607 in 258 PAs for the Tribe. In 2003 he put up at .634 with three teams, one of whom was the Pirates and two of whom play in the hitter-friendliest parks in baseball, the Rockies and the Cubs. His .907 in 2004 was an aberration.
• DeCaster is 26, we need to find out now if he can cut it in the bigs.
• DeCaster slaughtered the ball over the winter and put up very good numbers in AA/AAA last year. He cannot possibly be worse than Hernandez would be.
• If we were a club with some chance of competing and a veteran utility infielder was the last piece to the puzzle, I'd say go with Hernandez. We're not anywhere near competing in 2006, and there's no way playing Hernandez this year helps us beyond the present (if it even helps us in the present, which I kind of doubt it will).

Humberto

More evidence today that Humberto Cota and his .672 OPS will be getting a majority of the starts over Ryan Doumit and his .722, this time in the way of a puff piece from the mouthpiece reminding us just how good Cota was last year with his .242 average, 7 homers, and 42 RBIs. For anyone's that's curious, I'm going to assume that anything I find from the Trib might as well be on Pirates.com and written by Ed (don't call me Dave Littlefield) Eagle. Between this and the earlier crap about McCutchen, they're really making my spring attempt to be positive difficult.

McCutchen

Dejan's spring training article today focuses on McCutchen who, starting today, will be with the big boys at the big league camp in Bradenton. Of course most of the column features his impressive stats from the GCL and NY Penn League last year (though I would stress sample size on the second one, he only played 13 games for the 'Cutters of Williamsport), though McCutchen does expound upon why he's actually not averse to working the count beyond three balls and trotting to first base:

"My high school experience helped a lot there because I knew I'd get walked a lot," he said. "I just kind of took that attitude with me to pro ball."

Of course, that's why the Pirates are here, to eliminate that patience. Just two paragraphs below, Brian Graham is quoted as saying:

"You're looking at someone who has that leadoff ability but also could get you home runs. We see Andrew as having a power kind of swing, and we want to make sure we give him the opportunity to develop that."

That seems brilliant. The scrawny kid who homered twice in ~200 ABs in minor league ball last year, yet showed great plate patience and the ability to drive the ball into gaps needs to develop more power. Instead of emphasizing and improving upon what he's doing right, let's screw him up early and turn this 5'11" 175 pound kid into a power hitter. It's pretty safe to ignore the .430 SLG he put up in Bradenton and the .442 he put up in Williamsport because he didn't hit a lot of homers, right? I mean doubles and triples are great, but we want HOMERS. That's right, let's make him into something he definitely is not. Kind of a strange emphasis to put on a guy for an organization that just hates those pesky strikeouts so darn much.

Good news everyone...

Giovanni Carrera finally made it to camp! I know you were holding your breath, but his visa problems have been cleared up and he's here and ready to have a slot in the bullpen handed to him no matter how he pitches this spring. Also, Paul Maholm is sitting out a couple days with a strained hammy. It doesn't sound bad, but this is how it starts...

There's also the main point of the Pirates Notebook today, that Jose Castillo is healthy, though a little rusty. Next up I'd like to hear what he looks like with bat in hand, which I'd assume we'll hear sometime later this week.

Predictions

Time for me to make two baseball related predictions that only tangentially have anything to do with the Pirates. They're actually two things that aren't very original at all and I'm sure a lot of people are thinking/saying the same things. But I have to get it off my chest, so here goes...

1. Barry Bonds will absolutely not retire after this season without the all-time home run record. The only reason any of this is in the news is because it's always all about Barry. And it can't be all about Barry if he retires without the record. If he's so sick of baseball and this is tearing his family apart and yadda yadda yadda, why not just retire now?
2. If the World Baseball Classic happens this year, it's going to be the only one. Star players are backing out left and right, even not-so-star players like Jose Castillo are backing out. I have yet to find a person that cares. The most dramatic storyline so far involving the whole thing may have been entirely fabricated. Plus, this whole tournament is going to be a gigantic one-horse race like the '92 Olympics when the Dream Team showed up. There's no way the American team or anyone holds a candle to the Dominican. I'm not actively rooting for this thing to fail, I just can't see how it won't with the way MLB has botched up the handling.
   

My spring mission statement

I've kind of hinted at this a couple times, but I'm going to try and shift focus here for Spring Training. Basically, I've accepted the fact that Dave Littlefield has horribly misspent the team's money and there's nothing left that I can do about that. I can't say anything about Burnitz or Randa that either myself or someone else hasn't already said, so I'm going to put the bitching about signing them to rest.

Anyways, I'm going to try and challenge myself this spring. I'm going to try and find positive things to say about the Pirates. Not the typical Spring Training fluffy stuff, but actual things to be positive about, because honestly I don't think this team will be all bad. I've mentioned all of these things before, but here's my starting points, the reasons I think the Pirates will be better in 2006 (not as good as they could be if DL had spent his money correctly, mind you, just better than the '05 edition).

1. Addition by the subtraction of the Redmans, McClendon, Lawton, Mesa, and probably Wigginton.
2. Addition by the maturation of Maholm, Bay, Doumit, Duke, Castillo, and hopefully Duffy or McLouth.
3. Addition by the "they couldn't possibly suck more this year than they did last year" corrolary applied to Oliver Perez and Kip Wells.
4. The faint hope that maybe grit and determination will actually be enough to return Jack Wilson to some semblance of his 2004 form.

So there you have it, the basic outline of how I'm going to try and be positive this spring. It probably won't be easy, but we'll see how long I can last. Remember, position players have to report by tomorrow, the first full squad workout is Wednesday and the annual ritualistic beating of Manatee County Community College is scheduled for a week from then. Spring is here.

Duke

Zach Duke is keeping a Spring Training journal for the Trib this year. It's pretty standard stuff and I kind of doubt any ground will be broken as they've all stayed pretty tame since the legendary "Jason Kendall and Keith Osik break into a locked closet in their Florida apartment" journal of about 8 years ago. Then again, you never know so it might be worth it to check out.

Some early spring notes

Today we have two columns in the PG regarding some very early Bucco details out of Bradenton. There's the "Jack Wilson has made himself huge" story, which isn't entirely surprising after what happened last year with the appendectomy. Despite all of his failings, Jack seems to be possessed with being a good baseball player (I remember hearing about him taking batting practice until his hands bled during his awful early season slump last year), so I really hope his extra weight helps him out during the season.

There's also some disconcerting news coming out of camp, namely news involving John Van Benschoten and the word "setback." For the uninitiated, if the word "setback" is being used to describe a Pirate pitcher's arm another s-word probably isn't far behind, namely "surgery" or in this case "more surgery." I think if one player could summarize the entire Dave Littlefield in and of himself, it's probably John Van Benschoten. Here's a guy who was an absolute masher in college, leading the NCAA in homers his junior year at Kent State as a first baseman/outfielder (winning the award for his bat). Dave Littlefield drafts him as a pitcher (shocking just about everyone). He gets off to a great start in the low minors, only to watch his arm not so surprisingly disintegrate. Still, despite being faced with overwhelming evidence that the guy simply is not going to make it as a starter (for the love of Pete, he's 26, it's just not going to happen) he's not being moved to the bullpen or back to the field (like Rick Ankiel, who wasn't nearly the hitter Johnny VB was prior to his professional career). It's stubborn, it's stupid, and it requires an incredible lack of ability to see what's happening on a baseball field. It's Dave Littlefield in a nutshell.

I like Chris Duffy

There's a good article about the Duffster in today's PG. Apparently he's spent most of the last five weeks at Pirate City in Bradenton, rehabbing that torn hammy like mad. It seems that the trainers found something odd in the way that he leaned while running which contributed to the tear, meaning that he's been re-learning how to run since January 8th.

According to Duffy, he's been timed at the same time around the bases that he clocked in with before his injury, so I suppose things are going well (though it's very early). All in all, I'm just happy to see a young guy so enthusiastic about being a Pirate. I've read too many stories about Oliver Perez doing no arm work at all in the offseason or Jose Guillen getting trapped in the Dominican without a visa to not be at least a little encouraged by reading about someone who actually worked really hard in the offseason.

Welcome to the jungle... er training camp

Today is one of my favorite days of the year, one of the small things that keeps me going right at the point that spring semester seems like it's going to last forever. It's the day pitchers and catchers report to camp. I don't know what it is about spring training, but it's just an all around hopeful time, no matter who you're a fan of. The sun starts shining, the gloves and baseball caps come out of the closet, and Craig Wilson and Oliver Perez look like All-Stars against Manatee County Community College. Today in the 'Burgh was probably a perfect day to reflect that atmosphere. I think it was like 50-60 degrees out all day long (I say "think" because I spent all day inside working on something called "Integrated Lab" that Duquesne uses to torture chem majors), and by mid-afternoon the rain broke and the sun came out.

Mostly I like today because of the hope it symbolizes. No one sits down on February 15th worrying about the little things. We sit down and think about how exciting it is that Duke and Maholm will be in the bigs for a full year, that Perez's arm feels good, that Jason Bay is the best player that no one's ever heard of in the NL, that no two middle infielders are more fun to watch than Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo, that when it comes to playing center field Chris Duffy reminds us all of a certain #18 that we loved to roam center at Three Rivers, that Lloyd is gone and the players really seem to like the new staff. Sure, you could look at the team and talk about how they're not much better than last year, how Dave Littlefield seemed to have a penchant for setting money on fire this offseason, and how Tracy at times can seem dumber than a rock, but that's no fun. Spring training is officially open and that means it's time to be hopeful, no matter how long the odds are. Why? Because if you aren't hopeful during spring training, I'm not sure when you ever will be.

Spring is in the air

Today it was over 40 degrees in Pittsburgh, the sun was shining, and I have to say that as fun as the football playoffs were this year, I'm ready for some baseball. Something about the weather and this time of year just makes it feel like it's time for Spring Training, and right on cue the pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Bradenton tomorrow. Jayson Stark has a good article about the beginning of spring and everything that happened this offseason. He doesn't actually mention the Pirates at all (how is Jeromy Burnitz not one of the worst contracts?), but it's still good enough to get anyone ready for baseball season.

Stop the presses

Surprisingly, and presumably after watching Chuck Tanner and Jim Leyland sit in the stands for years takings notes on the goings on at PNC Park for employers that weren't himself, Dave Littlefield has decided to hire an advanced scout and it's none other than Kent Tekulve. It is encouraging to see that they've filled a void as glaring as this one (you can say what you want, spreadsheets and videotape only go so far), though I'm a bit skeptical (shocking, I know). It seems like a rather big job for one person to do, though I checked some other team websites and it does seem like everyone does things differently. Littlefield says as much and he also said this is how Tracy wanted it done, so I'll take his word for it (a risky proposition, I know). It just seems a little fishy that a rather prominent former player (at the least you can call Teke a "fan favorite" though his role on the '79 team might elevate him to "local legend") who's been more or less begging for a job (he really wanted the road color guy gig that went to Wehner last year) magically is qualified to fill what some consider to be a huge hole in the front office. With one fell swoop, Littlefield shuts up the people that want to see an advanced scout and keeps Teke happy. If Tekulve is bad at his job (he's never really done anything like this before, since his pitching career ended he's been a color guy for the Phillies and the Director of Baseball Operations for Washington Wild Things) DL can stick to the old method and no one will be the wiser.

Craig Wilson

Yesterday (just barely yesterday, as in 8 minutes ago) brought us a Craig Wilson piece by Dejan (I wanted to talk about this earlier except that since I woke up it's been the longest day of my life, so many things went wrong that they even put the wrong mustard on my sandwich at dinner and I was eating a chicken, bacon, and swiss sandwich with yellow mustard, just one of those days, I'm done boring you with the details of my life) and I have to say, Craig Wilson impresses me. If I was him, I'd probably be thinking about how I had a breakout season in 2004, then had two hand injuries that caused me to miss a huge chunk of 2005 and still managed to put up similar SLG and OBP numbers, though my homer power was understandably diminished a bit. That would of course force me to focus on the fact that despite these things my own power-starved team decided they didn't like me enough and made up the bogus excuses of too many strikeouts and bad defense to justify signing someone to play my position. Then, burned into my brain, would be the THIRTY SEVEN YEAR OLD HUMAN WINDMILL (with worse numbers at the plate and only slightly better fielding ability than me at this point in his life) they signed to play my position. It's not like they went out and traded for someone like Milton Bradley who could make a difference on this team, they signed Jeromy Freaking Burnitz. All things considered, I'd be pretty f-ing bitter if I was Craig Wilson. And there's not a chance in hell I'd say something like:

I'm still going to do what I've done the past couple springs. I'm going to play hard and make it tough for them not to play me. ... I've always gone into the spring with the thought that I'm going to have to earn a spot. Nothing's ever given to you. As far as I'm concerned, I'm still going in there to play hard and get in the lineup.

I guess what I'm saying is, I'm impressed at how Craig is taking this in stride. And I do think he's going to put up some monster numbers in the spring (because he always seems to). Unfortunately for us, I think it's just a quicker ticket out of town for him.

EDIT (12:28 AM): I forgot the link and I did want to add that Tracy's quote at the end about Craig was a good one.

There are big pinch-hit at-bats to be had, especially in the National League. And I'll tell you this, too: If Craig Wilson is going to be a good player for us, which I definitely think he can be, we've got to find playing time for him apart from pinch-hitting.

This really is the most intelligent thing I've seen said about Craig in a while. I really don't think he's an All-Star, nor do I think he would he be an everyday starter for a playoff team. I just think he's a lot better than Jeromy Burnitz, and I'm insulted that Dave Littlefied tries to pawn Burnitz off as an upgrade on us.

Return

The Stats Geek is back and in fine for today, providing reasoning to not go head over heels for DL's spending spree. I'd spend more time on it, but I don't exactly have that kind of time at the moment. Don't let anyone ever tell you that P-Chem is fun because if they do, they're lying. Just keep that in mind.

Slow day

Not much going on on the Pirate front today. There's an Ed Eagle mailbag at Pirates.com which is strictly read-at-you-own-risk, as usual. The headlining topic is the Pirates defense and how good it is. Since it includes Sean Casey, Joe Randa, and Jason Bay's arm, among other things, it really probably isn't as good as Eagle says it is, but I digress.

Anyways, this is probably going to be a slow week for posting here, between a couple tests and a huge lab report. I'll still try and manage an update a day or so, and maybe a couple of them will be interesting.

More PG stuff

Here's a place where I actually agree with Jim Tracy, it's pointless for the manager to set 82 wins as a goal for the team, I think that's something that's really only meaningful to the fans. Plus, as stupid as it sounds, the manager really shouldn't publicly set his sight for the team that low, even if they are the Pirates.

Also today, Dejan lists his top 10 questions coming into Spring Training. Some quick thoughts on those:

• Please keep Jack Wilson out of the 2-hole. He just isn't suited to bat there. Randa would work out much better there, I think.
• All this crap about some kind of competition between Cota and Doumit is giving me a headache. Doumit's a much better hitter and more than adequate behind the plate. Giving Cota a majority of the starts behind the plate would be a clear indication that the philosophy of the new coaching staff is seriously flawed.
• If Terry Adams, Giovanni Carrerra, or Brandon Duckworth get a spot in the bullpen I'm going to be sick to my stomach.
• I don't know if I've ever seen a less inspiring competition for the 5th starter than one that involves Victor Santos and Ryan Voglesong.
• The pitching is absolutely the most important thing on this team. If Wells and Perez can turn things around, they will absolutely help cover some of the stupid things Littlefield did this offseason.
  

Lineups

We got lots of baseball stuff in the PG today and I'll try to get something up about all of it if I have time this afternoon. It would appear that a good place to start is the predicted lineups. Dejan, Smizik, Cook, Meyer, and Collier all submitted projected opening day lineups today and they're not much different. All five have Duffy leadoff and Jumpin' Jack second, while everyone except Cook also goes the same at 3-5 with Bay, Burnitz, and Casey (Cook slots them Casey, Bay, Burnitz). Randa is almost the consensus 6 hitter (Collier says Castillo) while mostly everyone puts Doumit seventh (Dejan puts Castillo 7th and Collier puts Randa there) and Castillo eighth (Dejan and Collier both have Doumit 8th). They all listed Duke as pitcher (I don't know if that was done simply to fill in the 9 slot or they all think Duke is the opening day starter). In terms of guessing the lineup that Tracy will put on the field, I'm inclined to agree with Dejan:

1. Duffy, CF
2. Wilson, SS
3. Bay, LF
4. Burnitz, RF
5. Casey, 1B
6. Randa, 3B
7. Castillo, 2B
8. Doumit, C

That wouldn't really be the lineup I'd put on the field if I was managing the team, though. One other thing I'll say is that I'd be inclined to agree with Dejan that if Jack struggles in the 2 slot, Randa should probably be moved up there pretty quickly. In fact, I wouldn't even start Jack in the 2-slot. It's true that his average over his career is best batting second, but last year he put up a paltry .615 OPS out of the 2 hole (compared with .728 batting eighth). Duffy batting leadoff kind of worries me, but we don't really have a better option at this point so I suppose it's his job until he loses it. And Burnitz wouldn't come anywhere near the field if I was managing the team. That would leave us with

1. Duffy, CF
2. Randa, 3B
3. Bay, LF
4. CWilson, RF
5. Casey, 1B
6. Castillo, 2B
7. Doumit, C
8. JWilson, SS

Of course a lot can change in the next month or so at camp, this is just a gut reaction at the moment.

The Reds

I should've mentioned this sooner, but the Reds did not hire Jim Beattie as myself and many other people thought they would. They did, in fact, hire Wayne Krivsky, formerly the assistant GM to Terry Ryan in Minnesota. I won't pretend to know a lot about Krivsky, but I do know that he's probably better than Beattie. Hiring Jim Beattie would have been an awful move (based on his hack job in Baltimore); hiring Wayne Krivsky makes sense. The guy's been an assistant GM in Minnesota for 8 years now and if there's a small market that has things running right up top, Minnesota is certainly right up there with Oakland. This means the Pirates are falling even further behind in their own division.

Think with your head, Josh

Josh Fogg has signed a one year, $450,000 contract to go pitch where pitchers go to die, Coors Field. Last year Fogg seemed to have a problem with the long ball (27 in only 169 innings), going to Colorado won't help that. I'm sad to see Fogg make this decision, he was a guy that I always liked in Pittsburgh and seemed to be a serviceable 4th or 5th starter before last year. He chose the Rockies over Washington, San Francisco, and Cincy, presumably thinking he had a better chance of making their rotation, though he's probably best suited to pitch somewhere like RFK with a giant outfield. If he repeats the problems he had last year in Colorado, his career will be over.

Anyways, here's the Rockies blog Bad Altitude (who's going into the sidebar) on the signing.

TV

FSN unveiled the 2006 Pirates schedule of 118 televised regular season games. That's one less than last year, though the number *could* go up if some national games are added (yeah, right). My friends from Boston and Baltimore laugh at the idea that every single Pirate game isn't on TV here (Sox games are on twice a night in Boston, once live and once in condensed version with none of the between pitches crap). Oh well, such is life in the 'Burgh I suppose.

Pining for Mark Cuban

I don't know how much attention everyone pays to the NBA (I personally pay very little to it), but the whole Mark Cuban, Phil Jackson situation is great. Jackson accused Cuban of influencing the refs with the way he apparently reviews game tape and sends questionable calls into the league. Cuban responded with a post on his blog titled "I Own Phil Jackson" and opening like this:

Not literally of course. That thrill belongs to the smartest businesswoman in professional sports, Jeannie Buss. Figuratively however, the coach formerly known as the Zen Master must now be considered my bucket boy.

This wasnt an acquisition I proactively pursued. There wasnt an official competition that I won, thereby confirming my dominance of his psyche. Instead Phil has initiated an ongoing commentary about me that started in his previous stint with the Lakers and was reinstated this year with his return, that proves that I own the guy.

Seriously, how fast can we get this guy into town?

Duke and co.

Tim Kurkijan lists Zach Duke with Dontrelle Willis, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, and King Felix as the future Cy Young winners "that will continue the comeback of major league pitching." Yeah, them or the steroid testing, one or the other. I've honestly never seen a list like this with less work put into it. Who's surprised by any of the names on that list? Who doesn't consider any of those guys to be the future of their respective teams? Am I supposed to be shocked that a Pirate and a Devil Ray (or is he just a "Ray" now?) are included on the list?

The Central

On Sunday (I'm getting to it a bit late, but cut me a break here people), Dejan's Hot Stove column hit a topic I've been meaning to go into depth on for a while, the drop off in the two good teams at the top of the division.

The Cards lost Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, Matt Morris, and Mark Grudzielanek, while replacing them with Juan Encarnacion, Larry Bigbie, Sidney Ponson, and Junior Spivey. They will get Scott Rolen back, which will be a plus, but Jim Edmonds will also be 36, which is not a plus (only one of his Baseball Reference comparable players put up decent numbers after the age of 35, and it was Willie Stargell). Don't get me wrong, the Cards will still be a good team, it's just that I'd be surprised if they're as good as they've been the past two seasons.

Moving down the ladder, the 'Stros will probably be without Clemens (I'd be SHOCKED if he came back after they non-tendered him, he's way too proud, family be damned, I'm seeing pinstripes in his future...), Pettite is a year older (though I won't pretend that most of his comps didn't have good seasons at age 34, because a lot of them did), and Bagwell will probably be gone. They made the Series mostly without him last year but they were a pitiful offensive team and without Clemens I'm not sure they can catch lightning in a bottle twice in a row.

As for the rest of the division, well, the Cubs are still the Cubs, they're putting most of their eggs in a basket that's out in the middle of a road with Wood and Prior. Sure, it might not get run over, but I wouldn't count on it. And when it does, well all that's left is Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez and... screw it, that's all I got. I thought maybe the Reds new owner was going to start turning the ship around when he fired O'Brien, but I don't see how hiring Beattie helps their case at all (if that is what they're doing). The Brewers, you could argue, are the only team in the division on their way up in 2006 because they're doing what the Pirates are constantly trying to do, only they're doing it right. The only question is whether or not they'll be ready to compete this year (kind of like the Indians last year).

So what's my point? It's that, despite all my bitching, the Pirates' moves in the offseason made them a better team for 2006. Not the signing of Burnitz or Randa or Hernandez, but the dropping of the Redmans, Wigginton, and Fogg, the progression of Duke, Maholm, Bay, and Gonzalez, and the impact that I think Jim Colborn might have on Perez and Wells. I'd be shocked if they lost 67 games again (though I'd be equally as shocked if they won more than 75-77) and if they hang around .500 for a while, I don't think the NL Central is going to be a runaway this year.

That being said, the very reason they won't compete is directly under Dejan's article in the "Buried Treasure" section:

The Pirates' marketing department is planning to make the most of broadcaster Greg Brown's victorious postgame cry, "Raise the Jolly Roger!" A skull-and-crossbones flag will be raised at the start of each game beyond the PNC Park outfield. If the Pirates win, it remains up overnight. If they lose, it comes down. The team also will have a second mascot, Jolly Roger, working with the Pirate Parrot.

More time is spent on crap like a new mascot and a new flag gimmick (which inexplicably will be raised before games, we can't even get inane details right, how can we "Raise the Jolly Roger" if it's already up?) because somehow the impression is that shit like that excites fans just as much as winning. Here's a newsflash guys, a quarter of a million people weren't in downtown Pittsburgh yesterday because the Steelers got a new mascot. Put a winning team on the field, though, and I think they might be surprised at how the 'Burgh reacts.

Busy

I shaved the playoff beard last night (and now I do a double take every time I see my oddly naked face in the mirror), went to today's parade (which was completely insane, if you didn't watch it or weren't there, take what the reports seem to read like and multiply it by at least 1000, I have no idea how many people where there, but on Fifth Avenue the people were like 10 deep on either side, the cars with the players could barely move, I heard somewhere they estimated the crowd at 220,000 and I totally believe it), and started getting back into baseball mode. There is, however, one other small obstacle in the way at the moment, college. Specifically the classes that got completely ignored over the weekend that still have tests scheduled for this week. Still, I should have some time to get a real post up sometime tomorrow. Until then, I'd recommend the Royals/Pirates conversation between the Bucs Dugout and the Royals Review, Wilbur Miller's column at OnlyBucs on a similar subject, and Jerry Crasnick's article about who will be the surprising teams next year (hint: it won't be the Pirates in the NL, but it will be a small market team from the NL Central, though no one who watched them play last year will actually be surprised). There was also a Jason Bay chat earlier today on ESPN.com, but it's insider only. I'll try and leaf through it sometime tonight or tomorrow and if there's anything interesting (which would be kind of surprising), I'll post it on here.

One last football post from a baseball fan

As a quick warning, it's impossible for me to not write about yesterday, so hopefully you'll all let me indulge myself with one last football post, mostly because I don't want to forget what happened yesterday and feel the need to write it down, before I go headlong into spring training mode later this week. If you were in Pittsburgh yesterday, or in the 70s, you probably don't need to read this, but like I said, this is for me.

Freshman year at Duquesne, I remember standing in the hall meeting a bunch of other terrified kids, realizing that a bunch of us had one thing in common, the Steelers. Even the non-Steelers fans admitted they would love to be in Pittsburgh for the Steelers to win a Super Bowl (except my RA who was a Browns fan and was heard muttering last night "If hell is worse than this, I'm going to church every day for the rest of my life"). My friends and I were then forced to watch our friend from New England celebrate 2 Super Bowls and a World Series while we were left to ponder just what that felt like. Remember that the only 'Burgh titles that have come in the lifetime of people my age are the two Cups won by the Pens. I can't speak for everyone else, but my dad wasn't a hockey fan and so I never got into hockey until I started watching it on my own (during the baseball strike), thus those two Cups could've been won in LA as far as my 7 year old self was concerned.

Enter this weekend. My friends and I (or at least those of us of the 21 year old Steeler fan variety) woke up at noon and headed to the South Side. We did exactly what college students are supposed to do on Super Bowl Sunday in the 'Burgh with the Steelers in the Super Bowl, drank beer (instituting a strict Iron City or Rolling Rock only rule and giving dirty looks at the two kids that didn't follow the rule), ate Primanti's, screamed "HERE WE GO STEELERS, HERE WE GO!!!" at the top of our lungs every time someone drove by with a Terrible Towel hanging out of their window (this was quite often). Around four, we came back to my apartment to watch the game. If you know me, this is because I can't watch any important sporting event involving my team with a large group of people. I can barely handle being with myself. As the clock ticked on it slowly dawned on us (specifically after Fast Willie took off to start the third quarter was when it hit me) that the Pittsburgh Steelers were about to win the Super Bowl. The game ended, we popped a small bottle of champagne I found in my fridge (my 21st was two weeks ago and I had completely forgotten it was in there), took a couple swigs, grabbed a hat, my Terrible Towel (it sat on top of my TV even when I didn't watch the game in my apartment all year, you can't mess with stuff like that), and bolted for Carson Street.

As we ran over the bridge we called our friends who were already down there, with no luck (the circuits were busy). Every car that drove over the 10th Street Bridge met us with honks and waving Terrible Towels. We hit the intersection of Carson and 10th and all we could see were people. Even the cops were giving high fives. We finally found one of our friends outside of Jack's and just started going with the crowd. I waved my Terrible Towel until my arm hurt like it hadn't since my Senior League coach made me throw 170 pitches in one game. I high-fived and hugged hundreds of people I've never seen before and might not ever see again. My extremely drunk and delirious friend did the Joey Porter dance for anyone that would watch, riot police included. I've never seen anyone happier in my life, and I'm not kidding. You haven't lived until you've seen a short white kid with a mohawk repeatedly do the Joey Porter dance with scores of people watching "Here we, Steelers, here we go, PITTSBURGH JUST WON THE SU-UPER BOWL" (to the "Here We Go" beat, of course). I carried some girl that I've never met on my back for like a block and a half. People were hanging out of windows, screaming. My friends and I just kept repeating things like "WE DID IT!" or "OH MY GOD!" or "HOLY SHIT, THE STEELERS JUST WON THE SUPER BOWL!" We made it all the way from 10th Street to the Birmingham Bridge (12 blocks I think). It was solid people all the way, with the highest concentration being outside of places like Jack's and The Locker Room (Hines' bar). We then started making our way back towards Duquesne. There was a band playing "Here We Go" on the corner of a street. There were something like 5 duct-tape Lombardi Trophies (we stopped to touch most of them). Every time we looked, someone was missing from our group, invariably found to be hugging some random person or doing the Joey Porter dance. Even the non-Steelers fans were having a great time. In our small group alone, we had a Bills fan, an Eagles fan, and a Pats fan, all with huge smiles on their faces, taking the whole scene in. Once the circuits cleared up, phone calls starting getting placed to parents, mine just wanted to make sure I was out on the streets taking it all in. We slowly made our way back towards 10th Street, stopping with everyone else whenever a helicopter hovered over us to wave our towels.

Anyways, I know I'm cynical, but I finally get it. People always ask my why I'm a Pirates fan, and I say because I want to be there when they finally win a World Series, but I never understood what that actually meant. Sure, I heard my dad's stories about how the '79 Pirates caused everyone in State College with a Pirates hat to become friends in the fall of '79, or how the Steelers owned Pittsburgh in the 70s, but they were just that, stories. They're a lot more than that now, because I have a story of my own.

GO STEELERS

Seriously, why are you here? There's a football game on.

HERE WE GO STEELERS, HERE WE GO!!!

Jeromy Burnitz

2005 key stats: .258/.322/.435 with 31 2B, 2 3B, and 24 HRs in 671 PAs (605 ABs)
2006 ZiPS: .240/.311/.412 with 26, 2, and 21 in 541 ABs

I have never like Jeromy Burnitz. I can't believe we signed Jeromy Burnitz for the money we signed him to. He's old and besides his year in Colorado he's been terrible of late. The more I think about it, the less I want to talk about it. I don't really want to talk about it. I'll be shocked if this signing turns out to be much better than Derek Bell. I'm gonna say .230/.300/.390.


That does it for the starters predictions. I may do some reserves as one post next week, and I'm going to wait for camp to open up to do the pitchers. I'll stick a link over on the right in a little bit as a central predictions thread to link to all of them for anyone that is looking to go back over them at any time (UPDATE: It's over there in the sidebar now).

Chris Duffy

2005 key stats: .341/.385/.429
2006 ZiPS: .287/.338/.384

Here's another tough one to predict, Duffy lit it up for a couple months last year and everyone fell in love with him but it's completely unrealistic to expect anything remotely near that this year. He put up a gaudy batting average, but he only had 7 extra base hits in his 136 PAs. He only has one year's experience above AA, and it was a shortened season at that. He struck out more than three times more than he walked. None of these are things that bode well for 2006.

In terms of non-offensive categories, he's got blazing speed and with the exception of last year at AAA, he's got a good SB%. He covers centerfield unlike anyone that has graced center at PNC and I think we have to go back to the namesake of this blog to find anyone that's played center for the black and gold like he can. He was certainly a favorite of the BBTN guys last year in his short time up and I'd expect that to continue next year.

When you get down to it, he's hard to pin a prediction on, mostly because his AAA numbers last year and his AA numbers the year before were very good, but in his first year a AA he had a difficult time adjusting (see the above link to WTM's site for the full minor league stats). I think he'll hit well enough next year to justify a spot on the team (especially with his glove), but I really doubt he'll be good enough to justify the leadoff spot that Tracy will probably blindly stick him in all year. I'm looking for a .280/.325/.385 year out of the Duffster next year.

Pirates...news?

I think the Pirates may have taken this "Steelers in the Super Bowl" thing as an excuse to drop off the face of the planet this week, as the most news we've heard from the team is that they've signed the three J's (Jonah Bayliss, Josh Sharpless, and Johnny VB) to wholly unremarkable $327,000 deals. That's not news, because those guys make what the team pays them, and that's that. A friend of mine that works at the Duquesne Club downtown said Kevin McClatchy came in the other day and ordered expensive bottles of wine with his rich friends because it was his birthday. I don't think that's really news either, but it's something.

But yeah, there is the Super Bowl thing, which has pretty much everyone's minds preoccupied, which is understandable. That's why I haven't posted much besides the predictions this week, because it's hard for me to think about a 95 loss baseball team when the football team is in the Super Bowl, and I doubt I'm really that different in that aspect. But I will finish out the predictions for the starters before the big game hits (Duffy today, Burnitz tomorrow). After that, well, I kind of doubt 90% of Pittsburgh will even realize the Pirates exist after Friday afternoon, but I'm sure I'll find something to write about.

Jason Bay

2005 key stats: .306/.402/.559 with 32 homers 44 doubles and 6 triples, 21/22 SB
2006 ZiPS: .297/.395/.557 with 32/35/5

There's not much I can say about Jason Bay that hasn't already been said. The guy can do it all, he's been doing it for two seasons, and he'll probably keep doing it next year. I don't know what kind of protection to expect for him in the lineup, I'm guessing we're looking at something like Duffy/JWilson/Bay/Burnitz/Casey. It means his RBIs will probably go down, as I don't imagine Duffy and Jack will get on base as much as you'd want the first two guys in a line up to get on. Then again, Burnitz and Casey probably won't be much worse than the guys we paraded around behind Bay last year while Craiggers was hurt. Bay was 26 last year, which means he's still at the age where he could be getting better, and he won't be getting worse. If he can stay healthy again, I don't see any reason we shouldn't expect .310/.410/.560 out of him next year.